The undisputed king of fantasy baseball over the last few years has been Albert Pujols. This proves to be the case once again going into 2011. Mock Draft Central has Pujols with an ADP of 1.16, though I have never seen him not picked first (and I do my share of mock drafts); Yahoo! MLB.com, and ESPN all have Pujols ranked #1 heading in to 2011.
I can only recall one time in my fantasy baseball history that I have had the first overall pick, and I did take Pujols (I traded him mid-season). This year, if I can get the first pick in any new league, I won't be taking Pujols.
Now, let me explain.
In a 10-person league, the first pick will also receive picks 20, 21, 40, and 41 for the first picks. Within those picks (by ADP) eight first basemen are taken and three shortstops.
Hanley Ramirez is obviously no Albert Pujols in terms of current fantasy output (in a standard 5x5 league) but if we pair Hanley with another 1st baseman, with an ADP around 20 or 21 and compare that to a combination of Pujols with another available SS, the value of Pujols doesn't seem so great after all.
The three short stops that are drafted in the first 5 rounds are Hanley, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Reyes, with Jimmy Rollins on the bubble.
Using 2011 projections from FanGraphs:
Pujols has a 5x5 line of: .327/120R/126RBI/43HR/11SB
Hanley has a 5x5 line of: .312/109R/80RBI/25HR/33SB
Two first basemen have an ADP around the 20 mark.
Prince Fielder (ADP 21.8): .276/100R/112RBI/41HR/2SB
Kevin Youkilis (ADO of 29.6): .294/103R/95RBI/25HR/5SB
The only SS being drafted around the time of the 2nd pick is:
Jose Reyes (ADP of 27.2): .286/85R/52RBI/11HR/69SB
That hardly seems to be a pick worthy of the 3rd round, but unless you throw the SS position to a late round guy with some upside or to an aging Derek Jeter or Jimmy Rollins, then Jose is what you get.
Pairing these players makes me think twice about drafting Pujols #1.
Pujols/Reyes Combination: .307/205R/178RBI/54HR/47SB
Ramirez/Fielder Combination: .294/209R/192RBI/66HR/35SB
Ramirez/Youkilis Combination: .303/212R/175RBI/50HR/38SB
With the 1st and 20th picks, the Ramirez/Fielder combination beats out the Pujols/Reyes combination in 3 of the 5 categories. The Ramirez/Youkilis combination only beats out Pujols/Reyes in runs scored.
So, if you happen to get the 1st pick in your draft and plan to take a SS in the first few rounds, you could really exploit the depth level of 1st base and feel good about taking Hanley Ramirez with the first pick and grabbing Prince Fielder when the round turns.
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