A Baseball Family (Repost)

I grew up an Army brat, and constantly looked for ways to get my dad’s attention and time: trying to match his hourly wage, joining boy scouts, and baseball. Fortunately for me we got all our moving out of the way by the time I was 6 years old. I grew up in southwestern Oklahoma just hours from the Dallas-Ft Worth area. My dad was a Rangers fan and would watch the games occasionally, but his passion for it definitely grew as it did with that of me and my brother. I remember going to a few games at the Ballpark in Arlington as a kid and seeing the field for the first time. It’s still as magical every time I walk through those gates. I remember picking #7 in little league and wanting to play catcher like my favorite player, Pudge. I remember Cal Ripken Jr. picking up my little sister out of the stands because people were crushing her to get his autograph, and she had no idea who happened to be holding her. I remember pulling my first game used baseball card from a random pack that my dad happened to just pick up for me one day. It was a Pudge bat. Of all the baseball cards we have bought over the years, neither me nor my dad have pulled another game used Pudge card since that day. I remember having a ball get away from my dad as we were playing catch and giving me a black eye; it was just like the Sandlot. I remember the first fly ball I ever caught in a little league game. I was so excited that I forgot to throw the ball back to the infield right away. I love baseball. I love baseball because it never lets us forget. Baseball is forever redeeming. It gives me memories of such great detail that may have nothing to do with the box score. Baseball isn’t bias. Baseball isn’t bound to a demographic. It brings every group, every class, and every personality to one temple and dissolves every difference. For twenty-seven outs we are all baseball fans with an emotional attachment to our team that is comparable to our own families. It’s a bond that creates the highest emotional moments and the lowest gut punching moments not only in a 162 game span but in a mere few innings. Baseball can be broken down into any microscopic detail that they smartest mathematician can fathom, but still every projection, every prediction, every power ranking become null as soon as the season starts. Baseball is a family. It brings those already bound closer together and it brings those who would have never otherwise been in the same company together to share in heartbreak, arguments, high fives, spilt beers, tears, exhaustion, fear, hope, and happiness. It’s a simple game that exhausts limits and anchors bonds.

Prediction: MLB 2011 Division Standings

I'm running out of time rather quickly. Instead of going through each division individually, as I did with the AL Central, this is a list of how I predict every division to stack up by the end of 2011.

AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Baltimore Orioles

I don't see the difference between the NYY and BoSox being as far apart as most others seem to think. The battle for first should go down to the final days with the second place NYY once again claiming the wild card spot for the AL. I'm half tempted to put the Jay Birds over the Rays, but I've learned never to sell the Stinger's short.

AL West:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Oakland Athletics
3. LA Angels of wherever they are now
4. Seattle Mariners

Same as last year with even more drama.

NL East:
1. Atlanta Braves
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Florida Marlins
4. Washington Nationals
5. New York Mets

The depth of the Braves organization takes them to the top of the AL East yet again where they will stay for a long time. I don't trust the Phillies offense as it proved so last season, but they will claim the NL Wild Card spot just barely ahead of Colorado.

NL Central:
1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. St Louis Cardinals
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching depth and defense. The Reds have so much of it that they take the division easily. The Brew Crew is improved and a sexy pick, but fall short this year.

NL West:
1. SF Giants
2. Colorado Rockies
3. LA Dodgers
4. San Diego Padres
5. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Giants could very well repeat as World Series Champs in 2011 (that hurt to type) but they have a solid rotation and bullpen with heavy anchors. That Belt kid is going to tag team with Posey to take this offense to the next level. Rockies and Dodgers will be better in 2011. I'd love to see the Rox get the WC, but its just not going to happen.

2011 Predictions: American League Central

Following up my predictions for American and National League Most Valuable Players for 2011, I am finally getting around to predicting the final placing for each division, as well as the wild card winner for each league. Once I establish who my playoff teams will be, I will make my predictions for each playoff series and ultimately crown my prediction for 2011 World (er U.S. and Canada) Series Champion.

American League Central: Talk about a tight division. In 2008, the Twins and ChiSox fought in a tie-breaker followed by another tie-breaker in 2009 between the Twins and Tigers. It’s really going to be a battle between those three teams for the division crown in 2011 with the Royals and Indians bringing up the rear.

1^st: Chicago White Sox: The White Sox should be excited going in to 2011. They brought in home run juggernaut Adam Dunn to DH for them. They thus created a fearsome group in the middle of the order with keeping Pauly and AJ. Look for Alexi and Beckham to start breaking out this season, and don’t discount that they’ve been hanging out with Omar Vizquel for the last two years. Chris Sale is a borderline man crush for me and getting Jake Peavey back at some point during the season may set this team off in nothing but to the top of the AL.

2^nd: Detroit Tigers: The Tigers had a hell of an offseason. They kept Magglio around, which I think means a lot for the team to keep his presence in the clubhouse and on the field. They brought in Victor Martinez to beef up the lineup; he can catch, play first, but it slated to be the primary DH. They solidified the back end of their bullpen by signing 2010 WonderBoy Joaquin Benoit. Verlander, Scherzer, and Porcello make for a solid 3 at the top of the rotation. They were in contention right up to the end in 2010 and have only gotten better.

3^rd: Minnesota Twins: I know, the Twins are defending champs and will run a very similar team out there in 2011 and I drop them to third in the division (maybe I’m just sick of seeing them roll over to the Yanks in the playoffs). I really just hate this teams’ pitching. I think they’re rotation is among the worst in the AL and the club itself doesn’t seem to have any faith in Liriano either. They lost a lot in the bullpen and who knows what they will get from Nathan, Morneau, or Nishioka. They won’t be a bad team and could easily prove my prediction wrong, but I don’t see the Twins being a legitimate playoff threat.

4^th: Cleveland Indians: I really really really hope that Carlos Santana gets plenty of time at 1^st base. I think the team will be a lot better with Marson at catcher, Santana at 1^st, LaPorta at DH, and Travis Hafner in another uniform. If you don’t watch the Indians, you should. Choo is the most underrated player in the game. I’m anxious to see what 2011 holds for Sizemore and Masterson. The Indians, however, won’t be a .500 team.

5^th: Kansas City Royals: Quick, name 6 players on the 2011 Royals team…. Yeah. Ask me about this team in 2013. In the mean time someone come up with a new nickname for Soria.

MLB Dream Job Submission

I was told that I should apply for the current "MLB Dream Job opening". I hesitated since I'm not too great at selling myself and trying to convince someone that I'm more deserving of something over someone else. It's a hard concept for me to accept, and who am I to say such a thing anyways?
The submission required a video as well, which the application didn't initially state. Even if the deadline wasn't today, I don't exactly have the internet connection to upload video (downside to living in the country).
The application asked me to explain in 500 words who I am and why I love baseball. It also asked for my 2011 MVP predictions in 500 words. It was hard to do so in such a small space but I did. I thought I'd go ahead and share.

I grew up an Army brat, and constantly looked for ways to get my dad’s attention and time: trying to match his hourly wage, joining boy scouts, and baseball. Fortunately for me we got all our moving out of the way by the time I was 6 years old. I grew up in southwestern Oklahoma just hours from the Dallas-Ft Worth area. My dad was a Rangers fan and would watch the games occasionally, but his passion for it definitely grew as it did with that of me and my brother. I remember going to a few games at the Ballpark in Arlington as a kid and seeing the field for the first time. It’s still as magical every time I walk through those gates. I remember picking #7 in little league and wanting to play catcher like my favorite player, Pudge. I remember Cal Ripken Jr. picking up my little sister out of the stands because people were crushing her to get his autograph, and she had no idea who happened to be holding her. I remember pulling my first game used baseball card from a random pack that my dad happened to just pick up for me one day. It was a Pudge bat. Of all the baseball cards we have bought over the years, neither me nor my dad have pulled another game used Pudge card since that day. I remember having a ball get away from my dad as we were playing catch and giving me a black eye; it was just like the Sandlot. I remember the first fly ball I ever caught in a little league game. I was so excited that I forgot to throw the ball back to the infield right away. I love baseball. I love baseball because it never lets us forget. Baseball is forever redeeming. It gives me memories of such great detail that may have nothing to do with the box score. Baseball isn’t bias. Baseball isn’t bound to a demographic. It brings every group, every class, and every personality to one temple and dissolves every difference. For twenty-seven outs we are all baseball fans with an emotional attachment to our team that is comparable to our own families. It’s a bond that creates the highest emotional moments and the lowest gut punching moments not only in a 162 game span but in a mere few innings. Baseball can be broken down into any microscopic detail that they smartest mathematician can fathom, but still every projection, every prediction, every power ranking become null as soon as the season starts. Baseball is a family. It brings those already bound closer together and it brings those who would have never otherwise been in the same company together to share in heartbreak, arguments, high fives, spilt beers, tears, exhaustion, fear, hope, and happiness. It’s a simple game that exhausts limits and anchors bonds.

Josh Hamilton proved that any prediction is taken with a grain of salt, and that anything can happen. His humbling 2009 season became a concern associated with his past. Then he became the 2010 AL MVP. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t fun to do! So here we go, my predictions for your 2011 AL and NL MVPs.

National League: There is certainly plenty of talent to pick from: defending MVP Joey Votto, perennial MVP in Albert Pujols, the nasty boys flying high in Colorado in Tulo and CarGo, and that’s just on the offensive side. The safe bet is Pujols, but with the injuries to the starting staff and the questionable defense, I don’t see the Cardinals contending in a tight NL central division. It’s proven difficult for an MVP come from a non-contender. I’m going with Colorado short stop, Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo finished in the top-5 MVP voting the past two years. He just turned 26 last October, so he’s knocking at the age of hitting the offensive prime of an MLB star. He was hit in the wrist in June of last year and came off the disabled list with a vengeance. He hit 14 homeruns in a two week span in September! A homerun every day!! Barring another freak injury Tulo will play 81 games in the hitters Coors Field. His defense will still be at the top of the National League at a very weak offensive position. There is no reason for him to be a silver slugger, gold glover, and essential piece to a contending team. That’s an MVP.

American League: I don’t see the American League showing the promise and debate that the NL holds. I don’t trust Josh Hamilton to repeat. Miguel Cabrera is back on the wagon. Jose Bautista could be nothing more than a flash in the pan and will be on a team that traded away its opening day starter and franchise player this offseason. Robby Cano may not get the lineup spot he deserves in an aging and overshadowing Yankees lineup that could keep him from maximizing position. But regardless of my distaste for the letter on his hat, Robby C gets my pick for AL MVP. I would much rather see him hitting 3^rd in that Yankees lineup but the prestige of ARod and Tex will probably keep him in the 5^th spot. Even still, he has played ~160 games the past 4 seasons and going into the magic year of age 28 has no reason to not match that in 2011. He benefits from a solid BAbip which has stayed relatively consistent over his career. He lacks the speed of a prototypical 2^nd baseman but he hits for high average and 25+ HR power. He will score over 100 runs in that lineup and drive in just as many. He’s a spark in an aging NYY lineup that will have a lot of redemption to prove in 2011. Robby C isn’t in the shadows anymore. His consistency through his career, exposure, dependency, and the lack of solid competition, makes Robinson Cano my 2011 AL MVP.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Base

I have a bad case of Spring Fever already. Most of the snow is gone after the 20+ inches were dumped on us a few weeks ago. It's starting to push 70. The window to my office is an open tease to what's starting to take place outside; not only are the crappie starting to hit, but so are the heavy hitting first baseman around the league.
First base is consistently the deepest fantasy position in baseball. If you don't believe me, scroll down a bit and see my case as to taking Hanley Ramirez over Albert Pujols with the first overall pick.
Let's dive into my top-25 First Basemen for 2011. These rankings reflect standard 5x5 categories (AVG, R, HR, SB, RBI), reflect the player being drafted as ONLY a first baseman regardless of eligibility (ie Buster Posey) and as always, are open to debate: (ADP)

1. Albert Pujols (1.1)
2. Miguel Cabrera (3.9)
   
3. Joey Votto (8.3)
   
4. Adrian Gonzalez (13.4)
   
5. Mark Teixeria (15.4)
   
6. Ryan Howard (16.9)
   
7. Prince Fielder (21.6)
   
8. Kevin Youkilis (31.4)
   
9. Adam Dunn (51.1)
   
10. Kendry Morales (54.6)
    
11. Buster Posey (40.5)
    
12. Justin Morneau (53.3)
    
13. Paul Konerko (79.9)
    
14. Billy Butler (75.0)
    
15. Mike Napoli (116.6)
    
16. Aubrey Huff (144.6)
    
17. Carlos Pena (161.4)
    
18. Derrek Lee (189.1)
    
19. Adam LaRoche (187.4)
    
20. Gaby Sanchez (197.0)
    
21. Michael Cuddyer (198.6)
    
22. Ike Davis (207.8)
    
23. Lance Berkman (219.6)
    
24. James Loney (254.1)
25. Mitch Moreland (284.6)
    

Victor Martinez will not carry 1st base eligibility over into 2011 in ESPN leagues (which is what I use). If you're using Yahoo! and their crazy eligibility requirements (I think all a player has to do is spit on the position to be eligible there in Yahoo! leagues), then VMart would fit in right around Adam Dunn.

I've noticed that Adam Lind has been falling fast in most drafts, perhaps due to his sole eligibility at DH. He should be eligible at first base fairly quickly into 2011 as he's slated to start there for Toronto. I would slate him in ahead of Mike Napoli.

This morning it was reported that Miggy was cited for a DUI in Florida last night, as he swigged some Johnny Walker in front of the deputy. Since then, I've already seen him drop behind Votto and A-Gone on several boards. That's something to watch carefully before your draft.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher

As pitchers and catchers start showing up to Florida and Arizona, with position players joining or right on their heals, its time to dive into 2011 Fantasy Baseball rankings. These rankings reflect standard 5x5 categories (AVG, R, HR, SB, RBI).

Let's start behind the plate. Here are my top 20 catchers for 2011 (with ADP courtesy of Mock Draft Central in parenthesis).

1. Joe Mauer (20.5)
   
2. Victor Martinez (30.19)
   
3. Brian McCann (31.19)
   
4. Buster Posey (45.44)
5. Carlos Santana (118.24)
6. Geovany Soto (100.2)
7. Mike Napoli (115.58)
8. Matt Wieters (164.09)
9. Miguel Montero (125.6)
10. Jorge Posada (154.74)
11. Kurt Suzuki (180.03)
12. Chris Iannetta (398.49)
    
13. Carlos Ruiz (222.73)
14. John Buck (230.6)
15. Yadier Molina (213.95)
16. Miguel Olivo (249.1)
17. AJ Pierzynski (336.78)
18. Russell Martin (362.04)
19. JP Arencibia (448.12)
20. Ryan Doumit (297.4)

Catcher looks to be pretty deep this year with the addition of Buster Posey and Carlos Santana for a full major league season. Each could potentially see some time at first base through out the season as well. Posey still has first base eligibility in most leagues and Santana potentially could as well as the Indians decide how to handle him.

Posada and Iannetta jump out to me. Jorge is slated to be the primary DH in an older but still potent NYY lineup. That could and should bump his at bats up to the 500+ mark for only the second time since 2003. Iannetta isn't being drafted in a lot of leagues which baffles me. He is the starting catcher in Colorado and should have no problem getting back to his 2008 form and potentially belting 20 home runs.

Unless you are set on getting one of the top-5, you should be just fine waiting until the tail end of your draft to pick up a catcher and using the 4/5th round draft pick on someone like Uggla, Bautista, or McCutchen.

Mr. Rosenthal... You're Wrong

Ken Rosenthal is wrong.
Can that be the extent of this blog post? No? Okay, I’ll explain further.

Michael Young still “fits” with the current Texas Rangers lineup. Ken posted an article on FoxSports at about 6:00 this evening Texas time. In the article he explained that a series of dots can be connected that spell the end of Face’s time in Arlington. Of these “dots” include:

- The trade for Mike Napoli: “Napoli fits at two positions at which the Rangers intend to play Young — first base and DH.”
True that each of those positions is where Young was to see time, but let’s be realistic here, who is Napoli going to take those at-bats from? Not MY. He gets those at-bats from Moreland against tough lefties (Gio Gonzalez, Sabathia, Jon Lester, ect) and probably from David Murphy or Craig Gentry, who were the in-house candidates to pick up the DH spot off the bench when Young was in the field. Mr. Rosenthal… you’re wrong.

- Young can veto any trade come May: “In May, Young will become more difficult to trade, attaining the right to veto any deal as a player with 10 years of major-league service, five with the same team.”

Yes, Michael Young gains 10-5 rights in May, but why is that going to make it more difficult to trade him? Mr. Rosenthal: “Young will never say it, but he cannot be happy with the recent turn of events, not after accepting the move to DH and saying he would do whatever is best for the club.” But Ken, if Michael is so unhappy with being in Texas, wouldn’t he jump at the chance to go to any club that would allow him to play every day? It’s not like he will go to a team like Kansas City or Pittsburg; those teams have no need to pick up an aging fielder with a monster contract; it isn’t there current game plan. The guy should be ecstatic that his team is getting better, that’s why he signed that extension. Faith in the Franchise. Mr. Rosenthal… you’re wrong.

Further in the article, Ken mentions trading Young to Colorado for Jose Lopez. What exactly will that accomplish? Sure the Rangers save a little money (not every team can be run by the Rally Monkies in Anaheim or Los Angeles, or where ever the hell the Angels are playing these days) but in order to get Andres Blaco Sr? It makes no sense to trade Young for another utility guy when Blanco is a perfect in-house candidate. (If I can manage to see any downside, it’s the even further reduced playing time for Blanco; he’s been a savior at times, and every winning club needs a guy like him on the bench)

Mr. Rosenthal begs the question: “If the Rangers are so intent on keeping Young, why did they pursue one free-agent DH after another — Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero — and then trade for Napoli?” Well Kenny Boy, the Rangers were never chasing a full time DH once they signed Beltre (and after the signing of Beltre, wrote of Vlad all together due his desire to play every day). JD and Co. were looking for a veteran guy off the bench that could pinch hit and be more feared for his history than present performance level and occasionally DH if Young happened to be playing the field. The Rangers never desired to add another guy who wanted, expected, or demanded 500+ at bats. Vlad wanted too many at bats, he was out. Thome wasn’t an ideal fit since he hit left handed (creating a difficult platoon situation, putting another lefty on the bench). Manny, well Manny fit the criteria of being a feared right handed hitter than could be talked into not playing every day, but his pride would have been an issue (as I’m sure he feels he could and should play every day), he can’t hardly play the field (making him a one and done pinch hitter), and he has a long history of being a douche-lord (and we already have one of those, ask @_missyyy).

This makes this Mike Napoli acquisition perfect, and I’ve been school girl giddy since I found out about it (never mind that I’ve wanted him here the past three years). First off, we gave FX2 and some cash to get one of the Angels best hitters over the past few years. JD and Co have put us in a great position of bullpen depth. We still have Feliz, O’Day, Ogando, Oliver, and Rhoades in the back end of the rotation (that’s pretty dang good). Add in Lowe and any number of guys who don’t make the rotation: Feldman, Scheppers, Kirkman, Harrison, Holland, and it is still not bad at all; we have plenty of options there. Second, Napoli meets all the criteria the Rangers need. Mike has never been an everyday player under Mike Scioscia, for some reason Scioscia really hates him, choosing Mathis over him to be the #1 catcher. He bats right handed and crushes lefties (a career .931 OPS against them); he can play first base (where he got the bulk of his 2010 ABs after Morales decided he wanted to get a Met’s type injury), and he can even catch if need be. I don’t think I need to remind everybody how quickly catching depth can disappear. If regulars stay healthy (I’m looking at you Ian and Nelly) then there is no reason to expect Napoli to get 500 ABs. That’s a big “IF” though. The versatility of this team is just amazing and definitely something to be excited over; remember Mitch can play right field too?
Both Napoli and Young fit perfectly with this team. The versatility alone should keep guys fresh, healthy, and engaged all season long. There is no reason to question trading Young or Kinsler just because Napoli is here. Young will get his at bats, don’t you worry about that Joe Rangerfan or Mr. Rosenthal. I’m excited about this signing and so should you be. Bravo JD and Co.

"I trust my teammates. I trust myself." -Michael Young

P.S. Mr. Greenburg, how is that extension coming for JD? Can you be sure to lock up Thad Levine with him? That’d be great.

The Five Things I Would Change

On the surface, there are plenty of things that the average fan would change about current the current MLB setup: maybe a salary cap, or eliminating teams that don’t even make an impression on their market. This offseason a few topics have been in the spotlight of hot discussion: an expanded playoff system, realignment, and an expanded use of in-game replay. I propose a few things that I would change:

1. Consistent rules within the leagues: I have never understood how in one sport there could be two different sets of rules for each half set of teams. My team affiliation has always been with the Texas Rangers, but I really just do not like the idea of the designated hitter. Jason Boland (“I don’t believe in anything like the designated hitter” from his song Proud Souls) and Crash Davis (“I believe there ought to be a Constitutional amendment outlawing the designated hitter” from the movie Bull Durham) feel me on this one. My distaste for these different rules really took to a new level this past season. I’ve never liked Ron Washington’s in game management skills, but he really frustrated me in the World Series with him seemingly inability to play National League ball against the San Francisco Giants. He did a fine job of playing better National League style small ball against the American League teams, but was outdone by Bruce Bochey’s home field advantage. Each league is almost playing a different game, and I am not for it. Eliminate the designated hitter and let the pitchers hit.

2. Eliminate alignment: I spent most of the 2010 regular season on the west coast and even then the start times between the Rangers and their western division opponents annoyed me. That aside: I am a firm believer that the best teams from each league should make the playoffs. Fangraphs recently released an article going more in depth with this that I will. They go through the last 15 years and look at what teams should have been in the playoffs but weren’t (under their proposed realignment plan, but still relevant). I however, would rather see no divisional alignment within each league. I can’t imagine that it would increase travel a whole lot for most teams. Scheduling would obviously be changed, reducing performance emphasis on inter-division opponents. One could easily assume that it would create more competition for teams who otherwise would be out of it (see the 2006 White Sox or the 2008 Blue Jays). By taking the 4 best teams from each league, the most deserving teams would be in the playoffs. This would be a little difficult to accommodate inter-league play (since teams wouldn’t be playing the same inter-league teams). I enjoy inter-league play and wouldn’t want it to be dissolved. Instead, I propose that these games be treated as exhibition games of sorts, where they would only count (in terms of playoff record) in case a tie-breaker is needed.

3. Expansion teams: This is one thing that I will admit that I am not too confident in the specifics of. It does make sense to me that by creating two new teams then each league would have a comfortable and even 16-teams each. The concentration of teams out east is already pretty high. I could see another team added in Oregon and Vegas. If MLB disregarded my idea of eliminating alignment then having 16 teams in each league would level out fairly for four teams within each division. I could see this happening before I see the dissolve of divisions within each league.

4. Restructure voting: Between the All-Star Game and the Hall of Fame there are serious flaws in voting. The fans should not have so much weight in the voting for the ASG; else it’s less about performance and more about popularity. I will contest though; I have gained more faith in the bulk of baseball fans over the years, and since Derek Jeter’s 2010 Gold Glove, lost plenty for the managers and coaches being involved in any voting. Not every team should have a representative to the ASG. I know that we want to embrace the kindergarten mentality that everyone is a winner, but… well that’s just bull. Some guys are not All-Stars and are only there because we can’t leave a team behind. I would suggest a weight of maybe 0.6 for a writers vote, 0.3 for a fans vote, and 0.1 for coach and managers vote. This gives more All-Star validity to the guys who are paid to watch every game, a little less to the fans (who focus more on one or two teams and are vastly influenced by emotion), and very little to the coaches and managers who should be paying more attention to in-game happens rather than individual performance over the course a season.

5. For the #5 piece of MLB that I would change about MLB, I will combine some small things that I would enjoy if I were the Commissioner.
• Pete Rose and Joe Jackson are removed from the all-time banishment list.
• No alcohol to be involved with televised celebration: this may be a bit extreme but if I were a father, I wouldn’t want my young son or daughter seeing players they look up to drenched in alcohol. The Angels’ celebration dousing Nick Adenhart’s jersey in alcohol made me sick. Treat it like chewing tobacco. You can do it, just off the field and off TV.
• One network station should not own the rights to every game on any particular day of the week. FOX’s monopoly on Saturday night baseball is ridiculously frustrating. We can all agree that there is nothing worse than a black out.

I didn’t touch on a salary cap or the expansion of replay. I have significant fear over a salary cap and how it could harm the game. There are a lot of things involved with it, the majority of which I have not even thought of. I’ve embraced the human element of in-game calls, and I believe that you win some and you lose some but it all evens out eventually. The umpires haven’t exactly embraced the implemented replay system, so I imagine they would be hesitant for any expansion as well.
I love this game. The game is perfect. The structure and my ideas… aren’t. Any change comes with question and the risk of failure, but at least we are able to strive for perfection and a desire to always improve.

Fantasy Baseball: #1 Pick.... Prince Fielder?

The undisputed king of fantasy baseball over the last few years has been Albert Pujols. This proves to be the case once again going into 2011. Mock Draft Central has Pujols with an ADP of 1.16, though I have never seen him not picked first (and I do my share of mock drafts); Yahoo! MLB.com, and ESPN all have Pujols ranked #1 heading in to 2011.
I can only recall one time in my fantasy baseball history that I have had the first overall pick, and I did take Pujols (I traded him mid-season). This year, if I can get the first pick in any new league, I won't be taking Pujols.
Now, let me explain.
In a 10-person league, the first pick will also receive picks 20, 21, 40, and 41 for the first picks. Within those picks (by ADP) eight first basemen are taken and three shortstops.
Hanley Ramirez is obviously no Albert Pujols in terms of current fantasy output (in a standard 5x5 league) but if we pair Hanley with another 1st baseman, with an ADP around 20 or 21 and compare that to a combination of Pujols with another available SS, the value of Pujols doesn't seem so great after all.
The three short stops that are drafted in the first 5 rounds are Hanley, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Reyes, with Jimmy Rollins on the bubble.
Using 2011 projections from FanGraphs:
Pujols has a 5x5 line of: .327/120R/126RBI/43HR/11SB
Hanley has a 5x5 line of: .312/109R/80RBI/25HR/33SB

Two first basemen have an ADP around the 20 mark.
Prince Fielder (ADP 21.8): .276/100R/112RBI/41HR/2SB
Kevin Youkilis (ADO of 29.6): .294/103R/95RBI/25HR/5SB

The only SS being drafted around the time of the 2nd pick is:
Jose Reyes (ADP of 27.2): .286/85R/52RBI/11HR/69SB

That hardly seems to be a pick worthy of the 3rd round, but unless you throw the SS position to a late round guy with some upside or to an aging Derek Jeter or Jimmy Rollins, then Jose is what you get.

Pairing these players makes me think twice about drafting Pujols #1.
Pujols/Reyes Combination: .307/205R/178RBI/54HR/47SB
Ramirez/Fielder Combination: .294/209R/192RBI/66HR/35SB
Ramirez/Youkilis Combination: .303/212R/175RBI/50HR/38SB

With the 1st and 20th picks, the Ramirez/Fielder combination beats out the Pujols/Reyes combination in 3 of the 5 categories. The Ramirez/Youkilis combination only beats out Pujols/Reyes in runs scored.

So, if you happen to get the 1st pick in your draft and plan to take a SS in the first few rounds, you could really exploit the depth level of 1st base and feel good about taking Hanley Ramirez with the first pick and grabbing Prince Fielder when the round turns.